A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
